§ Historical Board
Historical Signal Board
Closed, after-the-fact signal classifications produced under the Signal Forensics Framework, each conditional on the invalidation level stated at publication.
Sampling policy
This public surface shows a randomized sample of up to 10 closed classifications, drawn anew on each visit. Active classifications are not published: an enumerated feed of open calls is redistributable signal, which a research publication of general circulation does not distribute. Randomized selection also removes the possibility of a curated record. Subscribers run memos on the tickers they choose; see pricing.
10 shown · sampled from 10 closed classifications
| Event date | Reference | Ticker | Event | Signal | Conf. | Horizon | Est. Range | Mat. | Disloc. | Src. | Status | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-26Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28 | ARR-2026-0628-BMY-01 | BMY | Beat-and-Raise Exhaustion | SELL | 66% | 6.4–12.6D | -6.8% to -3.9% | 74 | 72 | 80 | CLOSED | View memo → |
| 2026-05-06Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27 | ARR-2026-0627-UBER-01 | UBER | Subscription Leverage Inflection | BUY | 74% | 2.3–5.6D | +4.1% to +7.8% | 71 | 80 | 78 | CLOSED | View memo → |
| 2025-04-09Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28 | ARR-2026-0628-MSFT-01 | MSFT | Relief-Rally Exhaustion | SELL | 68% | 5.2–10.8D | -7.2% to -4.1% | 74 | 80 | 84 | CLOSED | View memo → |
| 2026-02-03Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27 | ARR-2026-0627-PFE-01 | PFE | Obesity Pipeline De-Risking | BUY | 70% | 4.8–10.7D | +3.6% to +7.3% | 72 | 75 | 76 | CLOSED | View memo → |
| 2025-07-17Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28 | ARR-2026-0628-ABT-01 | ABT | Beat-but-Light-Guide Overshoot | BUY | 68% | 6.3–12.2D | +3.9% to +6.8% | 72 | 78 | 88 | CLOSED | View memo → |
| 2026-05-20Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27 | ARR-2026-0627-NVDA-01 | NVDA | Sell-the-News Exhaustion | SELL | 72% | 5.4–11.3D | -8.6% to -3.1% | 80 | 78 | 80 | CLOSED | View memo → |
| 2025-02-14Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28 | ARR-2026-0628-PG-01 | PG | Guidance-Skepticism Dislocation | BUY | 68% | 4.9–9.8D | +3.9% to +6.8% | 72 | 78 | 82 | CLOSED | View memo → |
| 2025-11-25Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28 | ARR-2026-0628-MRK-01 | MRK | Hope-Rally Over-Extrapolation | SELL | 66% | 5.6–11.9D | -7.6% to -4.2% | 74 | 75 | 82 | CLOSED | View memo → |
| 2026-02-03Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27 | ARR-2026-0627-DIS-01 | DIS | Streaming Profitability Inflection | BUY | 68% | 6.1–12.4D | +3.4% to +6.8% | 80 | 78 | 79 | CLOSED | View memo → |
| 2024-10-11Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28 | ARR-2026-0628-JPM-01 | JPM | Priced-In Earnings Beat | HOLD | 58% | 5.7–11.4D | -2.7% to +2.9% | 72 | 78 | 88 | CLOSED | View memo → |
BMYSELLCLOSED
Event date
2024-07-26Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28
Reference
ARR-2026-0628-BMY-01
Confidence
66%
Horizon
6.4–12.6D
Est. Range
-6.8% to -3.9%
Event
Beat-and-Raise Exhaustion
Materiality
74
Dislocation
72
Src. Conf.
80
UBERBUYCLOSED
Event date
2026-05-06Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27
Reference
ARR-2026-0627-UBER-01
Confidence
74%
Horizon
2.3–5.6D
Est. Range
+4.1% to +7.8%
Event
Subscription Leverage Inflection
Materiality
71
Dislocation
80
Src. Conf.
78
MSFTSELLCLOSED
Event date
2025-04-09Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28
Reference
ARR-2026-0628-MSFT-01
Confidence
68%
Horizon
5.2–10.8D
Est. Range
-7.2% to -4.1%
Event
Relief-Rally Exhaustion
Materiality
74
Dislocation
80
Src. Conf.
84
PFEBUYCLOSED
Event date
2026-02-03Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27
Reference
ARR-2026-0627-PFE-01
Confidence
70%
Horizon
4.8–10.7D
Est. Range
+3.6% to +7.3%
Event
Obesity Pipeline De-Risking
Materiality
72
Dislocation
75
Src. Conf.
76
ABTBUYCLOSED
Event date
2025-07-17Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28
Reference
ARR-2026-0628-ABT-01
Confidence
68%
Horizon
6.3–12.2D
Est. Range
+3.9% to +6.8%
Event
Beat-but-Light-Guide Overshoot
Materiality
72
Dislocation
78
Src. Conf.
88
NVDASELLCLOSED
Event date
2026-05-20Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27
Reference
ARR-2026-0627-NVDA-01
Confidence
72%
Horizon
5.4–11.3D
Est. Range
-8.6% to -3.1%
Event
Sell-the-News Exhaustion
Materiality
80
Dislocation
78
Src. Conf.
80
PGBUYCLOSED
Event date
2025-02-14Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28
Reference
ARR-2026-0628-PG-01
Confidence
68%
Horizon
4.9–9.8D
Est. Range
+3.9% to +6.8%
Event
Guidance-Skepticism Dislocation
Materiality
72
Dislocation
78
Src. Conf.
82
MRKSELLCLOSED
Event date
2025-11-25Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28
Reference
ARR-2026-0628-MRK-01
Confidence
66%
Horizon
5.6–11.9D
Est. Range
-7.6% to -4.2%
Event
Hope-Rally Over-Extrapolation
Materiality
74
Dislocation
75
Src. Conf.
82
DISBUYCLOSED
Event date
2026-02-03Retrospective case · written 2026-06-27
Reference
ARR-2026-0627-DIS-01
Confidence
68%
Horizon
6.1–12.4D
Est. Range
+3.4% to +6.8%
Event
Streaming Profitability Inflection
Materiality
80
Dislocation
78
Src. Conf.
79
JPMHOLDCLOSED
Event date
2024-10-11Retrospective case · written 2026-06-28
Reference
ARR-2026-0628-JPM-01
Confidence
58%
Horizon
5.7–11.4D
Est. Range
-2.7% to +2.9%
Event
Priced-In Earnings Beat
Materiality
72
Dislocation
78
Src. Conf.
88