ARR-TC-2026-005·Technical Commentary·2026-02-09

An Entropic, Dispersion-Constrained Solution to the Joint SPX/VIX Puzzle

· martingale Schrödinger· relative entropy· joint calibration· VIX
§ Reviewed Work
Dispersion-constrained martingale Schrödinger problems and the exact joint S&P 500/VIX smile calibration puzzle
J. Guyon
Finance and Stochastics 28(1), 27–79 (2024)
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§01

Abstract

The paper solves the long-standing joint SPX/VIX calibration puzzle exactly by formulating a dispersion-constrained martingale Schrödinger problem: among all models calibrated to SPX smiles at two maturities and the VIX smile, find the one of minimal relative entropy to a reference, subject to martingality and a dispersion (VIX-defining) constraint. We read it as the definitive entropic formulation of joint calibration.

§02

Notation / Conceptual Frame

Minimize H(Q | Q_ref) over martingale couplings Q on (SPX_{T1}, VIX_{T1}, SPX_{T2}) calibrated to the three smiles, subject to the dispersion constraint E[ (1/Δ) ∫ d⟨log S⟩ | F_{T1} ] = VIX_{T1}²; solved by a Sinkhorn-type fixed point.

§03

Commentary

The achievement is exactness: a nonparametric model fitting SPX and VIX smiles simultaneously without approximation, with the Schrödinger / entropic structure supplying both existence and a numerical scheme. It is the benchmark against which parametric joint models are judged.

§04

Implications for Research Methodology

Provides the desk a reference object for what exact joint SPX/VIX consistency looks like; parametric models in use can be assessed by their distance from this entropic optimum.

§05

Limitations

The exact solution is discrete-time and nonparametric, so it informs rather than replaces a dynamic model; computational cost and the choice of reference model shape the result.

§ Related Notes
This note is informational and interpretive. It does not constitute personalized investment advice. Market activity involves risk. Historical analysis and model outputs do not guarantee future results.