Invalidation Geometry in Short-Horizon Discretionary Signal Systems

A directional conclusion that lacks an invalidation surface is not a research output. We formalise the geometry of invalidation as a codimension-one boundary in the joint space of (price, time, evidence) and derive necessary conditions for its construction prior to signal publication.

Invalidation set I = { (p, t, e) : f(p, t, e) ≤ 0 } where f encodes price triggers, time decay, and evidence revisions. A signal is admissible only if I is non-empty and finite-measure within the stated horizon.

Constructing I before publication enforces discipline: the question is not 'where could I be right' but 'where would I be wrong'. The framework is symmetric across BUY, SELL, and HOLD outputs.

Memo synthesis is gated on the existence of a non-empty I. Signals that cannot be falsified within the stated horizon are downgraded to commentary.

Boundary specification is itself a modelling choice; sensitivity to f is reported explicitly.